Engagement between the United States (U.S.) and the Republic of Cuba (Cuba) in early 2026 is being shaped by a deliberate dual strategy: (i) intensified pressure on Havana, limits its access to energy, including a new tariff framework aimed at third‑country oil suppliers, and (ii) narrowly tailored openings designed to prevent a complete fuel cutoff by steering permissible transactions toward Cuba’s non‑state actors.