Divided government is returning to Washington DC. The Republican surge of 2024 that yielded two years of GOP dominance over the levers of federal power in the US has been erased and replaced by shared authority between the two parties, setting the stage for a 120th Congress marked by investigations and partisan confrontation.
In the last two years of his second term, President Donald Trump will face dramatic new constraints on his ability to advance a legislative agenda and secure the approval of his nominees for key posts, an even greater reliance on executive authority. He will also encounter a new adversary in Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), who is poised to become the leader of the Democratic opposition in Washington DC and the first African American to wield the speaker’s gavel in the US House of Representatives. The new division of power in Washington DC will provide the backdrop for the run up to the 2028 US presidential contest as the American electorate evaluates its options for a post-Trump political future.
This report, prepared by our bipartisan Public Policy team, examines the outlook for 2027 and beyond in five key areas as they project to be shaped and impacted by the new realities of governing in Washington DC:
Oversight
Affordability
Trade and investment
Energy and natural resources
Artificial intelligence and technology
